Feb 2nd Bubble News Update
The crash has well and truly started
01-02-07 FinFacts: Daft.ie reports substantial fall in asking prices for Irish houses in last 3 quarters of 2006
posted by JaneyMackers @ 7:21 pm
49 comments
49 Comments:
SBP article: At least one lender will slash its mortgage interest rates in an escalation of the mortgage price war.... Full story at:
http://www.sbpost.ie/post/pages/p/story.aspx-qqqt=THE+MARKET-qqqs=themarket-qqqid=20812-qqqx=1.asp
Sounds like slower growth in this sector is leading to a scrap for customers..
I agree the signs are coming thick and fast now. Look at all the mortgage advertising in press and papers recently and now a price war. This is a sign things are slowing down and the banks now it. I really think that you could have seen it coming when the banks started doing sale and lease backs on their own properties. And now you have talk of Estate agents wanting to increase commissions. The whole thing looks like its about to burst and not the soft landing many are pushing in the media at the moment. What is it they say! Everything can feel ok when your falling until you hit the grouund!
The Park Cabinteely, 1/2 way down page: Was Region 850K
http://216.239.59.104/search?q=cache:O-MDzVVUXFYJ:www.daft.ie/dublin/houses_for_sale/cabinteely/+4+Sycamore+Green,+The+Park,+Cabinteely&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=3&gl=ie
Now: From 800K
http://www5.daft.ie/dublin/cabinteely/198989/
Yeah the market ain't moving, the following house had 2 price cuts in a week, Went from €620k to €599k to €595k and its also listed by two real estate agents
http://www.daft.ie/searchsale.daft?id=197815&search=1
Caches Google link
http://tinyurl.com/25f44a
Even the good people of D4 are not immune:
Bath Ave: 695K posted on daft one month ago.
http://www.daft.ie/dublin/sandymount/111524/
Now on My Home at 680K:
http://www3.myhome.ie/search/property.asp?id=280909&np=&rt=search&searchlist=
Even on the most expensive roads in D4 prices are falling!
Look into (google) "Santa Anna" with "Lisney" on "Ailesbury Road", Ballsbridge, Dublin 4. It went to Auction in September 2006 with an AMV €7m and was withdrawn, quoting €7.5m.
Lisney now has it on €6.75m! Thats a 10% fall and it still has not sold.
I see similar with 156 Merrion road on with Sherry fitzgerald. Failed at Auction with an AMV of €5m. Now on at €4.6m and not selling
13 Trafalgar Lane, Monkstown.. 14% drop..ouch..
Was 925K http://216.239.59.104/search?q=cache:LvCC54pDx_QJ:www.daft.ie/dublin/monkstown/114258/+13+Trafalgar+Lane,+Monkstown&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=1&gl=ie
Now 795K
www.daft.ie/114258
If the market is in free-fall as you all seem to think then how come it has been two weeks without another example??
I agree that the market has come to a virtual halt and that sellers have to justify their pricing, but come on, there is still interest in well designed and located developments...
Hi Anon,
Because I've been a little too busy lately to update.
See comments and ThePropertyPin for more examples
geraldine terrace, milltown - was 700k originally, then 650....now 635
Here's another:
10E North Street, Ongar, D15 (2 bed)
Was €350,000
then 317,500 http://www.leahyproperty.ie/asp/listings.asp?l=1
now €300,000
http://www.myhome.ie/search/property.asp?id=305825&np=&rt=search&searchlist=
on the market since October.
Just because no one has posed in two weeks does not mean that their is loads more of examples that the market is falling. Open your eyes and look for yourself. The media, agents and government are trying hard too keep it a secret for the moment but the signs and facts are plain to see if you look for yourself.
Here is another Dublin 4 House falling in price
7 Shrewsbury Park with lisney
Lat May 7 Shrewsbury Park in Ballsbridge was withdrawn and Lisney was quoting €3.9 million.
Now €3.1m and not sold
Here is another one in D4. A house came up in Sweepstakes last year at €1.9m with Sherryfitz.
http://archives.tcm.ie/businesspost/2006/03/26/story12804.asp
It never sold and even got a write up in the Times in the "worth the investment" section of property section of the Times and inthe Davys report
http://www.davydirect.ie/other/pubarticles/econcr20060329.pdf.
It never sold and price was dropped to €1.75 and was pulled off the market
Another house same as the above has also come on the market in the Sweepstakes with Norths Estate agents now at €1.6m
http://www3.myhome.ie/search/property.asp?id=287893&np=&rt=search&searchlist=
Malahide/Kinsealy
www.daft.ie/163927 -
Was 560K, now 550K + 2.5K of vouchers.
The sales pitch is getting worse if that is possible. (Search google and click on the cached links to see 560K price)
Here is another one in D4. If the prices in the affluent areas are falling over 10% what does it say about the rest of the market where interest rate rises are having a much more negative effect.
152 Merrion road with Sherryfitz had an AMV of €5m when it went to auction last May. Now its on at €4.6m and still not sold.
Heres one for you, €25,000 drop, classic rented house, lying empty.
19 Richdale Court, Dublin Road, Mullingar
Was €475,000
http://tinyurl.com/2f9635
Now €450,000
http://tinyurl.com/28qry8
Todays Irish Times property supplement says a lot (more smokr and mirrors). Some of the press and Estate agents are trying to make it feel optimistic but the real story is that Developers are now giving incentives to try and get people to buy new homes. The market is crashing and how long more can the Goverment, Press, Estate agents and all others with major vested interests make it feel rosy and keep it from being commmon knowlege. Many Economists after recent Euro data are now saying we will definately see another two rate rises and maybe more. I dont see the Irish Economists that work for the banks (who funnily have also been selling bank branches) publicising this like they did before christmas that rates were peaking. I suspect the government will try to keep the bust a secret if they can until after the General election.
Irish debt growth now the fastest in the EU
IRELAND had the fastest growth in personal indebtedness in the EU last year, according to figures from the Central Bank.
Households took out €18.7bn in new borrowings of various kinds last year, up 16pc on the previous year.
Households now owe a total of €134bn, figures for the year to last December show.
This is up 16.2pc on the figures for 2005. But the lion's share of this debt is made up of borrowings to buy property.
The figures released yesterday show that borrowings as a ratio of Gross National Product grew faster in this country than any other EU member, mainly because of the rapid growth in mortgages.
Of the €134bn owned to banks, some €111.7bn is made up of mortgages, with home-loan debt rising 18pc in a year.
Personal borrowings by households (excluding mortgages) made up €22.3bn of the total borrowings, a rise of 9pc.
However, the borrowing binge is showing signs of easing, according to 'Sectoral Developments in Private Sector Credit' issued by the Central Bank.
The rate of increase in private sector debt hit its lowest level in over two years in December, at 23pc. This was down sharply from 30pc a year earlier.
Central Bank economists explained that some of this slowdown may be due to securitisation deals, where banks sell on their loan books to other finance houses.
But economist with IIB Bank Austin Hughes said the six European Central Bank interest rate rises since November 2005 were dampening demand for loans.
Overall personal borrowings (including mortgages) rose by 16.2pc for 2006, but this was down from a rise of 26.8pc a year earlier.
The growth rate in residential mortgages, adjusted for securitisations, was 25.5pc last year. This compared with 27pc in 2005.
Mr Hughes added: "What these figures are showing is a softening in the overall growth rate in lending, even when you exclude securitisations.
"It is still growing but not at the same rate. We are seeing an orderly deceleration."
Construction companies borrowed at a slower rate last year, indicating a softening in demand for new houses.
However, the rate of growth in borrowing by construction companies is still very strong. There was a 48pc rise in new loans to building firms last year, compared with a 61pc rise in the year to last September.
The document makes the point that over the past few years there has been a rise in property-related borrowings, while personal borrowing as a share of overall debt has been declining.
Mr Hughes said that of the €22bn owed to banks by households only around €2.5bn of this was owed on credit cards.
Homes seized as property crisis worsens
Its most recently compiled figures, now five years out of date, show a drop in the numbers of repossessions, thanks to economic prosperity and the then booming property market. In 1995, 193 houses were repossessed by building societies compared with 25 in 2002. But in January, Irish Life & Permanent reported 14 repossessions on its own, an indication that the total for all institutions combined must have risen significantly.
Although official figures remain elusive, anecdotal evidence of a return to an increase in house repossessions is emerging. One financial adviser, who negotiates settlements with banks and Revenue for people in financial trouble, says he has 100 people at any one time who are battling repossession orders.
He claims the rate of house repossessions has increased by as much as 400 per cent in the last two years, and that more middle-class families than before are being pursued by lenders.
In the south-east, a legal source said that repossessions were now "quite common", estimating that 30 to 40 cases were coming before the Circuit Court on each sitting day. Orders for possession are made through county registrars and do not have to be read in open court.
In the west, there is a a "significant increase" in enforcement proceedings in the courts. One solicitor said he estimated this increase was of the order of 10 per cent. But the increase in court actions by banks arising from other financial debt was of the order of 30 to 40 per cent, he said.
"This has become much more noticeable over the last year or so. Certainly the lending institutions are a lot more jittery and are moving quicker than heretofore," he added.
In Limerick, legal sources say that there is a trend whereby banks try to avoid adverse publicity in the courts by reaching agreement with house-owners to take possession by consent and then rent the property back to them.
if the most expensive home in dublin can fall by a third in value from 30 million to 20 million, what does that imply one may ask, a soft landing indeed!
Lets face it the media derives so much income from the property supplements that it is not in their interest to play the market down. Hence you regularly read that crappy 3bed semis are a snip at 1.2 million and the test for me is that i would not be impressed bringing back a new girlfriend to such an abode and then having to admit that i paid 1.2 million for it. you would have to be a complete idiot to believe the property supplements.
Recession has hit our real estate market badly, that is the prices of properties are dropping.
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